This is the home page for AMS 132 (Winter 2017).  In what follows DD = David Draper (lecturer; email address draper@ucsc.edu); PR  = Pedro Regueiro (TA; email address pregueir@soe.ucsc.edu) and AT  = Alex Terenin (TA; email address aterenin@ucsc.edu); and BE = Baskin Engineering building.

When you email DD, PR or AT, to ensure that your message receives prompt attention please use the phrase AMS 132 student in the subject line.

  • (12 Jan 2017) Announcements will be posted in this section. The Attachment section will contain PDF copies of the document camera lecture notes and extra lecture notes, as well as case studies and R and Maple code.
  • (14 Jan 2017) Webcasts of the lectures are available at https://webcast.ucsc.edu/ under AMS 132 with Draper.
  • (24 Jan 2017) Office hours, starting 26 Jan): M 1.15-2.15pm Baskin 318 (AT); M 2.15-3.15pm Baskin 318 (AT); Tue 1.30-2.30pm Baskin 358 (DD); Wed 4-5pm Baskin 119 (PR); Wed 5-6pm Baskin 119 (PR); Thu 11.45am-12.45pm Baskin 358 (DD).
  • (29 Jan 2017) The syllabus for the course is finally posted below.
  • (7 Feb 2017) The assignment for Homework 1 is posted below (target due date Thu 16 Feb 2017).
  • (6 Mar 2017) The final version of the assignment for Homework 2 is posted below (target due date Tue 14 Mar 2017).
  • (20 Mar 2017) The final version of the Take Home Final Exam is posted below (absolute due date Fri 24 Mar 2017).
AttachmentSize
PDF icon Tentative syllabus and reading list45.92 KB
PDF icon Lecture notes, part 1 (foundations)338.61 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (12 Jan 2017)392.15 KB
PDF icon Extra notes, version 2 (17 Jan 2017)437.93 KB
Plain text icon R code in the Kaiser case study with dichotomous (Bernoulli) outcomes16.31 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (19 Jan 2017)203.68 KB
PDF icon Discussion Section 1, with part (f) corrected (week of 23-27 Jan 2017)140.6 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (24 Jan 2017)598.2 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (26 Jan 2017)652.38 KB
PDF icon Discussion Section 2 (week of 30 Jan-3 Feb 2017)182.31 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (31 Jan 2017)657.85 KB
PDF icon Discussion Section 3 (week of 6-8 Feb 2017)161.84 KB
Plain text icon The file weibull-plotting-r.txt for Discussion Section 31.03 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (2 Feb 2017)891.1 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (7 Feb 2017)878.02 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (9 Feb 2017)405.39 KB
Plain text icon The file wire-failure-data-r.txt for Discussion Section 3100 bytes
Plain text icon R code to explore the Bernoulli likelihood and log likelihood functions2.67 KB
Plain text icon Maple code to find the Bernoulli-sampling MLE and its standard error968 bytes
PDF icon Discussion Section 4 (week of 13-17 Feb 2017)145.17 KB
Plain text icon R code to explore the Beta family of distributions and examine the posterior in the Kaiser case study2.61 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (14 Feb 2017)892.82 KB
PDF icon PDF version of assignment for Homework 1 (with minor correction to problem 2(j))160.45 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (16 Feb 2017)676.36 KB
Plain text icon Revised Kaiser case study calibration R code (Discussion Section 2), including Bayesian intervals (version 3)5.35 KB
Plain text icon Some R code that may help you with Homework 13.4 KB
PDF icon Lecture notes, part 2 (maximum-likelihood and conjugate analyses)2.44 MB
Plain text icon R code for the frequentist large-sample Gaussian analysis of the NB10 data5.88 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (21 Feb 2017)1.09 MB
Plain text icon Maple code for the first (Gaussian) analysis of the NB10 data1.5 KB
Plain text icon R code for the Laplace distribution in Discussion Section 5862 bytes
PDF icon Extra notes (23 Feb 2017)728.3 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (28 Feb 2017)991.88 KB
Plain text icon R code for the Bayesian Gaussian analysis of the NB10 data8.05 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (2 Mar 2017)395.78 KB
PDF icon Discussion Section 5 (week of 27 Feb-3 Mar 2017)115.3 KB
PDF icon Discussion Section 6 (week of 6-10 Mar 2017)148.78 KB
Plain text icon R code for Discussion Section 64.19 KB
PDF icon PDF version of Homework 2 assignment190.88 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (7 Mar 2017)1.1 MB
Plain text icon LaTeX version of Homework 2 assignment 18.12 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (9 Mar 2017)224.4 KB
Plain text icon WinBUGS and RJAGS model file for the NB10 t analysis235 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS data file for the NB10 t analysis710 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS inits file for the NB10 t analysis56 bytes
Plain text icon RJAGS code for the NB10 t analysis15.36 KB
Plain text icon Some R code that may help you with Homework 21.72 KB
PDF icon Some information about the model comparison method DIC49.67 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (14 Mar 2017)1.03 MB
Plain text icon R code to use the binomial distribution and the bootstrap to get nonparametric confidence intervals2.24 KB
Plain text icon R code to use RJAGS to fit the t sampling distribution to the NB10 data15.53 KB
Plain text icon WinBUGS code: NB10 model 1 file (t sampling distribution)233 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS code: NB10 data file710 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS code: NB10 initial values file for model 156 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS code: NB10 model 2 file (Gaussian sampling distribution)204 bytes
Plain text icon WinBUGS code: NB10 initial values file for model 246 bytes
Plain text icon LaTeX version of Take Home Final Exam (final version)30.02 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (16 Mar 2017)227.29 KB
Plain text icon R code to sample from a Dirichlet distribution288 bytes
Plain text icon Income data for final exam: read into R with the command y <- scan( 'income-data.txt' )6.02 KB
Plain text icon RJAGS Lognormal model file for final exam278 bytes
Plain text icon RJAGS code to fit Lognormal model for final exam11.1 KB
Plain text icon RJAGS Gamma model file for final exam272 bytes
Plain text icon RJAGS code to fit Gamma model for final exam10.96 KB
PDF icon PDF version of final draft of take-home final (with a correction)220.02 KB
Plain text icon Some R code that may help you with the Take-Home Final3.49 KB